By the year 2060, projected rates of cardiovascular risk factors and disease will increase significantly in the United States, according to a study published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Substantial increases in cardiovascular trends may contribute to a rising burden on the U.S. healthcare system and highlight the need for equitable access to prevention education and treatments now to prevent future disease.
The researchers used data from the 2020 U.S. Census Bureau report for the years 2025 to 2060, and combined these census counts with the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors or disease based on the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. From these estimates, the investigators evaluated projected cardiovascular risk factors and diseases in groups based on sex (male and female), age (18-44 years; 45-64; 67-79; >80) and race and ethnicity (Asian, Black, Hispanic, White and other). The researchers analyzed projected rates for the following cardiovascular risk factors: diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia, obesity; and the following cardiovascular diseases: ischemic heart disease, heart failure, heart attack and stroke.
Among the general U.S. population, all four CV risk factors are expected to increase from 2025 to 2060, with the largest percentage increase in diabetes (39.3% increase to 55 million persons), followed by dyslipidemia (27.6% to 126M), hypertension (25.1% to 162M) and obesity (18.3% to 126M). The researchers found that stroke (33.8% to 15M) and heart failure (33.4% to 13M) were the highest projected increases in rates of cardiovascular diseases, followed by ischemic heart disease (30.7% to 29M) and heart attack (16.9% to 16M).
Projections for CV risk factors or diseases from 2025 to 2060 are expected to stabilize for males versus females (apart from obesity, where women are projected to continue to have higher prevalence) as well as across age. However, all projections for race and ethnicity minority groups exponentially rose, while projections for White persons gradually decreased. The Black population is expected to experience the highest CV risk factor burden among all race and ethnicity increases. In addition, CVD rate increases are projected to have the highest impact on the Black and Hispanic populations.
The study has several limitations, including the conventional method of generating predictions for future CV disease by assuming future patterns of CV risk factors. The study authors did not factor in COVID-19 to the estimates or potential long-term impacts of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system. Lastly, CVDs were defined based on self-report.
