Delays in cancer screening during the COVID-19 pandemic will likely cause a significant increase in cancer cases that could have been caught earlier with screening, and may now be diagnosed at later stages, placing an increased burden on an already strained healthcare system, according to a new research article published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons (JACS).
For the study, researchers at Boston University developed a predictive statistical model to quantify missed diagnoses of lung, breast, and colorectal cancers by comparing observed cancer rates in 2020 with pre-pandemic cancer rates (2010-2019). According to the authors, the study is one of the first to look at the number of missed colon, lung, and breast cancer diagnoses at the U.S. population level, and adds to the growing body of scientific research revealing how pandemic-related disruptions constrained cancer care.
To quantify potential missed diagnoses, the team’s statistical model incorporated data from the National Cancer Database (NCDB), which collects data on more than 70% of all cancer cases in the United States. To adjust for cancer cases not included in the NCDB, researchers standardized the data to the U.S. population using Census data.
Key findings
The team analyzed data from 1,707,395 lung, 2,200,505 breast, and 1,066,138 colorectal cancer patients. Significant differences between the observed cancer rates in 2020 compared with the historical data from 2010-2019 were noted for all three types of cancer:
- Colorectal cancer: observed incidence decreased by 18.6%
- Lung cancer: observed incidence decreased by 18.1%
- Breast cancer: observed incidence decreased by 14.6%
In addition, missed diagnoses appeared to disproportionately affect certain sociodemographic populations, including non-White and Hispanic patients and those treated within the Northeast and West regions of the U.S.
